When I look at the FTSE all share graph for the past three months, I see something that I havent seen for at least the last twele; fairly constant, if not timid growth. I find myself asking the question, "Is this growth as sustainable as it looks on paper?"
In order to answer this question I began to look at news and statistics from the time that this growth began. I found that the growth began with the announcement of the controvercial 'rescue plan' that the UK government has announced, and is still attempting to apply.
This fills me with both joy and dread; joy for the ammount of confidence that the stock market seems to have in this rescue package and dread when I imagine what might happen to the stock exchange should this rescue plan fall apart.
though this growth is somewhat timid and slow in its nature, it is a welcome change from the unrestricted freefall that this economy has witnessed in the past seven or so months. I live in hope that this will be the start of a recovery, but common sense is telling me that we haven't quite hit the bottom of the slump just yet. Things are likeley to get worse before they get better for the FTSE.
The Government coult yet prove me wrong, and I sincerely hope they do... I vote for them after all.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Recession Survival Guide Part 3/4
OK... I've taken a couple of weeks off for Christmas, but now I'm back! did you miss me?... of course not... no bugger reads this shit anyway... ah well... Hopefully, one day, this blog will take off... and when that day comes, people might find this useful... though I'm guessing that'll happen during the next recession in 2050.
Either way... I give to you the scouse economist's recession survival guide! Part three!
Five: Find a change jar
Everybody has owned one of these at some point, and it contains an almost comical amount of pennies that no one can be bothered to take down to the post office and get changed.
From now on, this is how it’s going to work. Every Friday, when you get in after a hard day doing whatever you do for a living, open your wallet and tip it upside down, unleashing a blizzard of shrapnel (hopefully). Take anything less than a pound coin and put in to your change jar.
The change jar will serve two purposes. Firstly, if you ever run low on odds and ends of cash, you can dive in to it and save yourself from drawing out an unnecessary amount of ‘big cash’ from an atm. Secondly, it can also serve as an additional fund to your savings. Once it’s full, get it changed and put it in to the bank.
Six: Open a savers account.
Yes, I have been saying this all along, but it is an important step, that deserves its own point. If you don’t already have a little money tucked away for a rainy day, then I suggest you start doing so.
There are a multitude of ‘horror-stories’ making the rounds in the press at the moment. ‘Hundreds of workers laid off!’, ‘Banks collapsing’ and ‘pension funds becoming worthless’.
If anything were to go wrong, either you taking a pay cut or losing your job altogether, you want something to support you for at least a little bit whilst you get back on your feet. I’m not scaremongering or anything, it’s just better to be safe than sorry. This is a recession after all.
Seven: Work hard.
As I have alluded previously, employment is on the decrease, and the job market is getting more competitive. You’re going to have to do more than before now in order to get a job or keep your current one.
With a little determination and a bit of arse-kissing you can make yourself more employable and more efficient than your co-workers. These, and those looking for your job who are currently in ‘welfare-land’, are your competition after all… and you need to beat them.
A warning, however. Working too hard can stress you out, make you less efficient and a pain to be around. Also, arse-kissing can only go so far before it becomes tedious and creepy. Your boss signs your pay-check, and that’s all. He/she doesn’t deserve free tickets or a bubble-bath. Coming on too strong will get you fired.
Remember this, be as good as you can be. That is all that anybody can ask for, and if that doesn’t keep you employed, then the company doesn’t deserve such a dedicated worker as yourself. It’s their loss.
Either way... I give to you the scouse economist's recession survival guide! Part three!
Five: Find a change jar
Everybody has owned one of these at some point, and it contains an almost comical amount of pennies that no one can be bothered to take down to the post office and get changed.
From now on, this is how it’s going to work. Every Friday, when you get in after a hard day doing whatever you do for a living, open your wallet and tip it upside down, unleashing a blizzard of shrapnel (hopefully). Take anything less than a pound coin and put in to your change jar.
The change jar will serve two purposes. Firstly, if you ever run low on odds and ends of cash, you can dive in to it and save yourself from drawing out an unnecessary amount of ‘big cash’ from an atm. Secondly, it can also serve as an additional fund to your savings. Once it’s full, get it changed and put it in to the bank.
Six: Open a savers account.
Yes, I have been saying this all along, but it is an important step, that deserves its own point. If you don’t already have a little money tucked away for a rainy day, then I suggest you start doing so.
There are a multitude of ‘horror-stories’ making the rounds in the press at the moment. ‘Hundreds of workers laid off!’, ‘Banks collapsing’ and ‘pension funds becoming worthless’.
If anything were to go wrong, either you taking a pay cut or losing your job altogether, you want something to support you for at least a little bit whilst you get back on your feet. I’m not scaremongering or anything, it’s just better to be safe than sorry. This is a recession after all.
Seven: Work hard.
As I have alluded previously, employment is on the decrease, and the job market is getting more competitive. You’re going to have to do more than before now in order to get a job or keep your current one.
With a little determination and a bit of arse-kissing you can make yourself more employable and more efficient than your co-workers. These, and those looking for your job who are currently in ‘welfare-land’, are your competition after all… and you need to beat them.
A warning, however. Working too hard can stress you out, make you less efficient and a pain to be around. Also, arse-kissing can only go so far before it becomes tedious and creepy. Your boss signs your pay-check, and that’s all. He/she doesn’t deserve free tickets or a bubble-bath. Coming on too strong will get you fired.
Remember this, be as good as you can be. That is all that anybody can ask for, and if that doesn’t keep you employed, then the company doesn’t deserve such a dedicated worker as yourself. It’s their loss.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Recession Survival Guide: pt 2/4
So, you've read the first two points in my recession survival guide, and you're back for more? well, never fear... I promised more and I, the socuse economist am a man of my word... Here it is then, part two of the recession survival guide.
Three: Smoking, Drinking and Gambling. Quit it!
Three of the most expensive habits known to man might be best left alone during a recession. Thousands of pounds a year is spent on each habit by each and every person who indulges in them. A thousand pounds can go a hell of a long way towards keeping a family afloat in a recession. Maybe it’s time to quit?
Please note, that I have never referred to any of these pursuits as ‘dirty’ or ‘dangerous’. I enjoy one or two of them myself once in a while and understand that it can be hard to quit. Smoking, drinking and gambling are no more dangerous than eating at McDonalds, and far less dangerous than driving to work everyday. In fact, given the correct application of willpower, these habits can be enjoyed perfectly safely, despite what the government says… whoops, off topic again!
Anyway, consider cutting down or quitting an expensive pursuit completely. You will feel the benefit once the withdrawal symptoms stop… twitch.
Four: Throw away the microwave.
Yes, you read correctly… the microwave is a sinful and evil mechanism… except for when it’s not.
Microwave meals are too expensive! It is well and truly possible to cook for yourself and eat well for a pound a day. I should know, I’ve been doing it for two months now. Curries, stir fries and pasta dishes will become your best friends, as you cook simple and cost-effective meals for 50p per person! (The extended version of this article has a brief example menu in it.*)
OK, so it won’t be ready in three minutes flat, (between 15-30 minutes, depending on the dish) and it’s not lavish, but can you afford to be?
*Please note: links to all extended articles will be added once they are operational.
Three: Smoking, Drinking and Gambling. Quit it!
Three of the most expensive habits known to man might be best left alone during a recession. Thousands of pounds a year is spent on each habit by each and every person who indulges in them. A thousand pounds can go a hell of a long way towards keeping a family afloat in a recession. Maybe it’s time to quit?
Please note, that I have never referred to any of these pursuits as ‘dirty’ or ‘dangerous’. I enjoy one or two of them myself once in a while and understand that it can be hard to quit. Smoking, drinking and gambling are no more dangerous than eating at McDonalds, and far less dangerous than driving to work everyday. In fact, given the correct application of willpower, these habits can be enjoyed perfectly safely, despite what the government says… whoops, off topic again!
Anyway, consider cutting down or quitting an expensive pursuit completely. You will feel the benefit once the withdrawal symptoms stop… twitch.
Four: Throw away the microwave.
Yes, you read correctly… the microwave is a sinful and evil mechanism… except for when it’s not.
Microwave meals are too expensive! It is well and truly possible to cook for yourself and eat well for a pound a day. I should know, I’ve been doing it for two months now. Curries, stir fries and pasta dishes will become your best friends, as you cook simple and cost-effective meals for 50p per person! (The extended version of this article has a brief example menu in it.*)
OK, so it won’t be ready in three minutes flat, (between 15-30 minutes, depending on the dish) and it’s not lavish, but can you afford to be?
*Please note: links to all extended articles will be added once they are operational.
Friday, December 5, 2008
The Scouse Economist's Recession Survival Guide, pt. 1/4
In these times of economic woe, some of us might need a helping hand in order to keep our heads above the water, so to speak. For this very reason I, the Scouse Economist have come up with a set of 10 helpful tips that if followed properly might actually leave you better off after the recession has passed.
May I introduce, the recession survival guide…
One: Pay by cash, not by card
It is fairly well documented that people can often lose their heads whilst shopping with their ‘magical cards that bring them money’. Not that I imply that these people are idiots, for anybody can fall under the bank’s seductive spell.
Now, let’s not get in to the politics of the matter (I’m saving that for the extended version of this article). For the moment, let us explain the principle of this point.
When you have money in your hand, you can count it to the penny and you have only that much to spend. With a card, it is all too easy to overspend, going overdrawn, in to an expensive overdraft or fall foul to the ‘credit-card-crunch’.
Here is my advice. Every time you buy something, take the time to visit a cash machine and take enough money out. Each time you take money out, print off a balance slip and keep hold of it. These balance slips are a great way to keep an eye on how much you’re spending. You will soon notice if you’re spending too much.
This will keep you out of trouble with the bank, and will also put a stop to those impulse buys that we all feel guilty about later. Well… sometimes.
Two: Stay in the black
As was suggested before, running out of cash and going in to the red is really something that most people want to avoid, if at all possible. This is not always so, and almost always hard to achieve.
Here is my suggested method. Yes, it does involve that dreaded word… ‘Budget!’.
Each month spend a single night with all of your records, statements and bills, along with a calculator and do the following:
- Work out all of your income and costs for the coming month, to the best of your knowledge. (Bills and payment sonly. Don’t count food budget and other constant costs at this point). There will always be a nasty surprise to bite you, but fear not, this is dealt with
- Assuming that once you do this there is a positive number (if not, skip to the last point), halve that number. The idea is to put half of your disposable income towards your living costs, and the other half in to some kind of saving scheme, just in case. (This need not be half and half. In fact, it is likely that half of your disposable income is not a liveable sum. If so, it is fine to use more money on living costs. Just try to put something away.)
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Too big to fail? Too big to succeed: Citigroup
Citigroup, yet another big American (failed) bank, recently applied for and were approved for emergency funding by the federal reserve. I am getting rather bored of typing that opening sentence in my articles, and I'm sure that this will not be the last time I need to do so, but since it's the first time I'm doing so in my blog, I'll let it go... just this once.
The reason that the fed has given us in order to justify this decision is the constantly recycled phrase, "too big to fail". I agree... It is far to big to let it fall, but is that a good thing? People look to these companies, banks and organisations and ask them, 'why are you failing?'
I have the answer, and any activist-capitalists amongst you will not like it. These failing banks are too big. The federal reserve and the bank of england (amongst others) have given large business a little too much slack, in my opinion. This worked great during times of prosperous economic strengh, but now that the global economyis turning, this business model is not proving to be quite so weathered as it was thought to be.
Large banks have been allowed to do whatever they please, moving away from their 'core competance' of lending money and breaking legs when people can't pay it back. Banks now provide insurance, mortgages and manufacture lollipops! It has gone beyond a joke.
Banks are now suffering from what can only be described as 'taking their eyes off the ball'. Problems are occuring all over the banking industry in all sectors and the bigger banks are finding it hard to handle all of them at once. Banks, who have little or no experience in the feilds of insurance, investment and others are now suffering from a little thing that I like to call 'incompetance'. No organisation can successfully navigate such turbulant waters, no matter how large or competant they are. Because the war is being fought on so many fronts, these large bastions of capitalism are going to fall and bring our economies down with it.
A bank that is simply a bank will do as well as it can be expected to do. In fairness, all banks, mortgage lenders, investment banks and building societies are struggling. Dispite this, they are not likely to fail, whereas the larger 'all-in-one' banks are being barraged by a number of problems, and are evidently failing under all of this weight.
It truily is a shame that the banking system has been allowed to get to this stage. The big banks are, indeed, to big to be allowed to fail, but they now bring the rest of the banking system down with them. The banking sysyem has got to the point where most of the banks are not only too big to be allowed to fail, but are also too big to succeed in such turbulant times. If there is still a banking system after this recession, it will need consolodating... Badly!
The reason that the fed has given us in order to justify this decision is the constantly recycled phrase, "too big to fail". I agree... It is far to big to let it fall, but is that a good thing? People look to these companies, banks and organisations and ask them, 'why are you failing?'
I have the answer, and any activist-capitalists amongst you will not like it. These failing banks are too big. The federal reserve and the bank of england (amongst others) have given large business a little too much slack, in my opinion. This worked great during times of prosperous economic strengh, but now that the global economyis turning, this business model is not proving to be quite so weathered as it was thought to be.
Large banks have been allowed to do whatever they please, moving away from their 'core competance' of lending money and breaking legs when people can't pay it back. Banks now provide insurance, mortgages and manufacture lollipops! It has gone beyond a joke.
Banks are now suffering from what can only be described as 'taking their eyes off the ball'. Problems are occuring all over the banking industry in all sectors and the bigger banks are finding it hard to handle all of them at once. Banks, who have little or no experience in the feilds of insurance, investment and others are now suffering from a little thing that I like to call 'incompetance'. No organisation can successfully navigate such turbulant waters, no matter how large or competant they are. Because the war is being fought on so many fronts, these large bastions of capitalism are going to fall and bring our economies down with it.
A bank that is simply a bank will do as well as it can be expected to do. In fairness, all banks, mortgage lenders, investment banks and building societies are struggling. Dispite this, they are not likely to fail, whereas the larger 'all-in-one' banks are being barraged by a number of problems, and are evidently failing under all of this weight.
It truily is a shame that the banking system has been allowed to get to this stage. The big banks are, indeed, to big to be allowed to fail, but they now bring the rest of the banking system down with them. The banking sysyem has got to the point where most of the banks are not only too big to be allowed to fail, but are also too big to succeed in such turbulant times. If there is still a banking system after this recession, it will need consolodating... Badly!
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Who'da Thunk It?
Guess what people of the business world? Scousers can do economics too!
OK, so I might be scouse, but don't let that fool you. Beneath this sarcastic, almost satirical exterior lies a mind filled to the brim with exchange rates, stock listings and utility theories.
This blog is all about (If you haven't already guessed) economics. My philosophy is that economics need not be a boring world, filled with graphs and numbers. Of course, there is that aspect of it and I will refer to it from time to time, but my aim is to bring the confusing world of economics to the average Joe-bloggs in an entertaining yet informative way.
Through my weekly blogging, hopefully I will help the whole world to understand what economics is and does. aaaahhh... Delusions of grandure. Nice.
OK, so I might be scouse, but don't let that fool you. Beneath this sarcastic, almost satirical exterior lies a mind filled to the brim with exchange rates, stock listings and utility theories.
This blog is all about (If you haven't already guessed) economics. My philosophy is that economics need not be a boring world, filled with graphs and numbers. Of course, there is that aspect of it and I will refer to it from time to time, but my aim is to bring the confusing world of economics to the average Joe-bloggs in an entertaining yet informative way.
Through my weekly blogging, hopefully I will help the whole world to understand what economics is and does. aaaahhh... Delusions of grandure. Nice.
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